What’s this week’s question? Let’s dive straight in…
Question: Is There a Mathematical Way of Workin out Which Are Your Chances in a Poker Hand?
Answer: Well lets say your whole cards are 6H, 7H, the flop is 8C, 5H, and AH. You truthfully have at this point A high, not a good hand. However you are one card away from a straight and one card away from a flush. So any 4 or 9 will give you your straight. You no there are four 4s and four 9s in the deck so you have 8 possible cards to a straight. (these are called outs). You no there are nine more hearts in the deck any of them will give you a flush. So you have nine "outs" to the flush. Nine outs to the flush plus eight outs to the straight is a total of 17 outs to what would likely be the best hand. There is a mathematical formula to get the exact odds of hitting one of those 17 cards. But if you take the number of outs you have to the winning hand and multiply by 4 ( 17X4=68 ) you will be darn accurate to your odds of winning that hand. At this point in the hand you would have a 68% chance of hitting your straight or flush. I did not count the outs you have to getting paired up with either the 6 or 7. There are three of each so that's another 6 outs. If you were to count these outs your total # of outs would be 23. 23 X 4 =92 so you have a 92% chance your hand will improve. I said improve not win. A pair of 6's or 7's is not a strong hand after the flop so i would only count the outs to a winning hand 17.
There are ways of geting your odds pre-flop as well but there are way to many variables as well. Pocket A's are about 85% to win against one other player. But the same A's are about 52% against 4 players.
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Comments
5 comments
Mike Smith
February 11, 2007
um yea if you are real good and can also count cards!
February 11, 2007
SOME SCIENTISTS HAVE THE THEORY ON SLOTS TO POKER BUT THERE'S NO SURE FIRE METHOD OF 52 CARDS ALL WIN
February 11, 2007
always peek at the other guys hand or yell I AM STRAPPED WITH A BOMB MOTHER FU@KERS GIMME ALL YOUR CARD, and flail your arms violently, hasn't failed yet
February 11, 2007
What works in theory doesn't always work in reality.Games of chance, such as poker, the lotto, or other forms of gambling can assure you of only one thing- empty pockets.
February 11, 2007
Each hand is different. There's 52 cards in a deck. Multiply it by two to get around 100, which is good for percentiles. Then figure out how many cards will give you a hand that you think will win. If you can get one more card, and three cards will improve your hand to a point that you think you can beat the other hands out there, your odds guess would be that you would have a 6 percent chance to win - 3 cards times two, for the percentile. If there are two cards coming, you can multiply your outs (number of cards that will improve your hand to a point that you think it can win) times 2 so.
So if you have a 4 flush, 9 cards can come to give you what will probably be the winning hand. If there are two cards coming, then your odds would be 9 x 2 (for the percentile) x 2 = 36%. 36 is a little higher than the actual number, I think, but its close enough.
But obviously your odds depend on your hand, and if its hold em, omaha, or 7 card stud, what is showing on the board and elsewhere.
And then you can watch your opponents and adjust your odds from there. Too many people get wrapped up in their cards and concentrate on only that. If a guy has an obvious tell, you can then figure that your chances might be a hundred percent to win even though you have jack shit, as long as you bet, or zero percent even though you caught your flush.
And then if you're in a casino or card house, your odds of winning money at the end of the night goes way down because they take a rake, and the amount they indirectly take from you turns out to be pretty large once you do the math.
There are books for poker odds, and books that have poker odds along with other tips. They aren't exactly hidden at the book stores.