By poker_boy | 2 Comments
Last updated: Friday, November 28, 2008 | 1920 Views Tags: confrontations, failure rate, jj, kk, knockout, mtts, omg, single one, those hands
This week’s question is as follows:
I am not gonna give you the whole “people stay in more” or “you see more hands per hour.” I genuinely feel like the biggest contributing factor to why people believe online poker is not random is because they don’t realize that certain hands are not as big a favorite over other hands.
The reason why you feel like your pocket KK’s are always losing to A 2 is because you don’t realize that your are expected to lose 1/3 of those confrontations. And if you play in MTTs with HUGE fields like many online players do you should eventually get a brutal knockout/bad beat.
Even if you always get it all in with the better of it….the odds are still stacked against you actually winning all (or even the majority) of those showdowns.
Ex.) Say, you go all in with pocket QQ’s early in the tourney and beat out AK…..then you go all in later with AK and beat A Q…..then you go all in with JJ and beat 10 10. Then you go all in with AA and lose to 10 J (and get knocked out or severley crippled)
Most people don’t realize that the odds are they should lose (at least) one of those hands.
the odds of you winning every single one of those is (51% * 70% * 80% * 80%) which = 22%
so even if though you get it in with the best of it every single time you still have almost an 80% failure rate in that situation.
And that is if you get in that many “perfect” all in situations.
And when you finally get knocked out and get your A A cracked you say OMG!!! that is so rigged….when the bottom line is the odds were against you even making it that far in the tournament given the amazing All in confrontations you faced.
hopefully this makes sense to people….but just know that going all in with KK and getting called by A 2….you are only expected to win 2/3 of those….meaning that chances are you will not win 2 of them in a row.
Hope this makes sense and stops the blabbering about online poker being rigged.
Plz comment
Texas Hold'em, as a community card game, also is the sort of game that makes for spectacular confrontations. Big hands run into big hands routinely, or else garbage hands draw out to win against unpaired high card hands that fail to improve. That's just the nature of the game. When high, escalating blinds force the action, wildness inevitably ensues.
Astaroth
January 1, 1970
I know that.
January 1, 1970
Hello,
Yes if you have 90% pot equity, it means that you will lose once every ten time.
The difficulty people and every human should have is to reconcile theoretical probability which only exists in a purely mathematical universe, with their personal experience. Yes you will lose 10% of the time, but are you going to repeat that experience 10,000 times to verify that if conforms to theory.
The problem is that it is nearly impossible to test if games are rigged or not, as they could be rigged in different hard to prove ways. If you take bad beats after bad beats during a 3 months period, yes doubt may and should pop up in your head.